Sales Launch November 2020 BTO Bartley Beacon

Sales Launch November 2020 BTO - Bartley Beacon

11/19/2020

disclaimer:
1. Readers are advised to use information available here as study guide only and use it at your own risk.
2. Please note that changes/ update based on updated information will be made from time to time, readers are advised to check on this page regularly.
3. Analysis was done based on available data at the time of this review being published.

Bartley Beacon is 2 of the last 5 developments to be developed within the Bidadari new town. The other being ParkView@Bidadari. 3 last developments will be launched as part of the February 2021 launch. Bartley Beacon is designed by DesignLink Architect Pte Ltd which did mostly EC projects and older private condominium.

Points to ponder
1. Maris Stella high school (primary/secondary) is located to the North of this site. Homeowners need to manage their expectation of staying next to an educational facility as different residents have different tolerance levels.

2. Mount Vernon Funeral Parlour Complex is just across Sang Nila Utama Road. NEA and HDB have announced the winning scheme for the Complex with the main entrance from Mount Vernon Lane. Homeowners will need to manage their expectation of having a funeral facility nearby.

3. This development is utilising PWCS (pneumatic Waste Conveyance System). While this new approach will save manpower on refuse collection as well as reduce surface area to be used for road access to individual refuse center, complaint has been received from Yuhua's residents which pioneered this method. High end private condominium at Marina Bay have also suffered some 'misfortune' which causes an unpleasant smell from the refuse chute.

1. Heat have been a sticky issue in Singapore due to its locality and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future due to climate change as well as rapid urban development and redevelopment activities. So much so that the National Research Foundation of Singapore (NRF) (https://www.ura.gov.sg/Corporate/Resources/Ideas-and-Trends/Beat-the-heat) have funded ‘Cooling Singapore’ initiative, which consist of multi-institutional initiative led by Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), NUS, SMART and TUM CREATE to look into ways to reduce heat in Singapore since 2017 (https://www.coolingsingapore.sg/). Please take note of the word ‘reduce’ and ‘avoid’. Recently (June 2020), Cooling Singapore has released their findings on ‘Urban Heat Vulnerability Analysis for Singapore’ which also clearly indicates which town in Singapore is currently well ‘heated’! (https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/handle/20.500.11850/419689)

“The UHV index (Urban Heat Vulnerability) is used to measure the effects of physical exposure, demographic sensitivity and socio-economic adjustment parameters. ... The findings help to define areas where heat mitigation measures are needed most, in order to ensure the protection of the population.” – Cooling Singapore

2. The best way to reduce heat intake has always been trying to minimise the exposure in the first place. In Singapore, we try to avoid heat intake from the west sun (afternoon sun) at all cost due to Singapore being located along the equator, which mean closer to the sun than any other part on Earth. Since Earth rotate at an angle of 23.5 degrees at its axis, North and South facing buildings will have direct west sun exposure as well, the difference is when and how much. Please watch the video here to have a better understanding of the above.

3. For this development, our preliminary assessment for west sun impact (2pm-4pm) shown that only 45% of the stacks here will avoid the west sun impact. Therefore, we give a score of 2 out of total 4 for this attribute.

1. The Sun is 147.84 million km away from Earth, that’s more than 3,689 times the circumference of the Earth. The Sun is too far away for us to control its impact. The radius of the Sun is 109x the radius of the Earth. The size of the Sun should speak volume about the difference (if any) in terms of heat intake. On the other hand, wind is closer to home as it happens on Earth. We can either take advantage of it or lose it, we can’t control it. In Singapore, we enjoy prevailing wind during the monsoon season with wind speed of 6-10 km/h. (NEA-weatherwise Singapore). Knowing when and which direction the prevailing wind happens may help to mitigate the heat impact due to west sun exposure.

2. There’s 1 in 16 chances of having the luxury of facing the prevailing wind, which happens 20% of the days in a year (based on MSS’s wind data recorded at Changi station from 2014-2017). The next best option would be 3 in 16 chances of facing the prevailing wind, which happens at least 10% in a year (excluding the above). Mechanical ventilation like air-conditioning can never replace natural ventilation as mechanical mean is mainly contained (meaning the same air will circulate in the same room), while natural ventilation allows air changes between external (outdoor) and internal (indoor) spaces.

3. For this development, our preliminary assessment of prevailing wind exposure shown that up to 55% of the stacks here will enjoy major prevailing wind exposure which happen more than 180 days in a year. Therefore, we give a score of 3 out of total 4 for this attribute.

"Highly recommend Hausanalyst's services. Soon Ching (hausanalyst) is extremely knowledgeable and passionate about helping people find their dream homes. He was able to articulate all the important factors when choosing a house (sun, wind, views, sound etc), with ample research and industry experience to back up his insights. We were genuinely surprised by the level of detail he went to in our calls with him. His 3D model allowed us to visualize the views from our shortlisted units, very valuable information we could not have obtained anywhere else. After seeing the 3D model we actually changed our decision on the final unit. Furthermore, Soon Ching (hausanalyst) was very responsive and sincere, staying up late with us the day before our appointment to help validate our choices and even gave us live updates on the units taken near our appointment time. Top notch service. After our experience with Soon Ching (hausanalyst), we felt like $xxx is a real bargain as we got so much value that helped us make an informed decision for one of our biggest life purchases."

Ms Michelle Darmawan |
APAC digital subscription growth |
Toa Payoh Ridge 4-rm 2020

1. The Viewing angle is 1 of the 3 attributes which can be determined by the planner or architect who design the development. One can either maximise the viewing vantage or the land yield. Both are mutually exclusive as higher land yield will lead to more building blocks or taller building blocks which will affect the units viewing angle.

2. The viewing angle took into account the human eye’s coverage as well as the distance one can see things and identify objects at around 1m height objectively. This attribute will filter situation where the building frontal distance, maybe spacious enough, but the viewing corridor have been greatly reduced due to narrower coverage (reason like the placement of buildings in front which adversely reduced the maximum view).

3. For this development, our preliminary assessment for viewing angle shown that only 31% of the stacks here will enjoy a good viewing angle. Therefore, we give a score of 2 out of total 4 for this attribute. Please note that we have omitted stacks with good viewing angles and building distance, but looking towards road, monsoon drain, etc. which is not desirable.

1. The noise exposure is the 2 of the 3 attributes which can be determined by the planner or architect who design the development. The planner can plan the town by segregating the land use base on activity, reduce roads, etc. While architect can create buffer to block the adverse effect of noise or use creative way to reduce the surrounding noise impact. As a homeowner, you can make a better judgement by knowing the distance from a potential noise source and how the noise impact will reduce with distance.

2. The understanding of noise disturbance in Singapore is still lacking though it’s a prevailing issue in recent years especially in the housing estate. NEA has since identified the 3 main noise disturbance sources as Vehicular noise, Construction noise and Industrial noise. On top of these 3 major noise disturbance sources, we have further identified minor noise disturbance source such as social, mechanical, vehicular (minor), religious, educational, etc.

3. For this development, our preliminary assessment for noise disturbance shown a high 7 point. Therefore, we give a score of 1 out of total 4 for this attribute. We assign 3 points for each major noise source and 1 point for each minor noise source.

1. The building distance is the 3rd attributes which can be determined by the planner or architect who design the development. The planner and architect will need to make a judgement call about how to balance the yield as well as ensuring a good building distance between the building blocks. Please note that a good building distance does not translate to a good viewing angle.

2. In 2010, URA introduced an industry guide to control the building length to prevent ‘wall-like’ developments. This guideline is mainly to control the distance between the side of 2 buildings rather than the distance between 2 buildings facing each other to break a ‘wall-like’ building blocks. HDB does have an internal guideline to dictate the distance between building facing each other, but it’s not a regulation.

3. For this development, our preliminary assessment of building distance shown that up to 75% of the stacks here will enjoy a good building distance (base on buildings lower than 18 storey). Therefore, we give a score of 3 out of total 4 for this attribute. Please note that we don’t make any omission on specific reasons like facing road, etc. for this attribute.

We rate this development with an overall score of 11 out of 20

Our scoring scale

Sun, Wind, View, Distance
0 - 25% > 1 pt
26 - 50% > 2 pt
51 - 75% > 3 pt
76 - 100% > 4 pt

Noise (Major noise source > 3 pt; Minor noise source > 1 pt)
> 7 pt > 1pt
4 - 6 pt > 2pt
1 - 3 pt > 3pt
0 pt > 4pt

Pricing Analysis

Rationale
1. The purpose of analyzing the pricing is to not too much about projecting the future trending, rather it’s more about looking for a sweet point to enter.
2. Once the sweet point being identified, homeowners can make reference to hausanalyst scoring for each stack/ unit to determine which is the best unit to go for or vice versa.
3. Quantum pricing or the total amount of the unit is not a good indication to find a sweet spot as developments always came in different sizes even thought it’s of same room type. (i.e. A 4-room may come in 92sqm, 94sqm or even 96sqm) The best indication should be down to its basic unit which is per square meter (psm) or per square foot (psf) rate.

Observation
1. Gap between median, min vs max is wider in 4-room compare to 5-room at Woodleigh Hillside.
2. Max launch price for 4-room at Bidadari moderated from 2015-2017.
3. Overall price movement (max, median and min) at Bidadari increases over the years (2015-2017) for a 5-room.
4. Sales of balance flats (sobf) price released for November 2020 have shown a sharp increment for 4-room at Bidadari.
5. Woodleigh Hillside 4-room have shown the most price increment.

Conclusion
1. This trend indicates a wide difference between stack/ level with better attributes (based on the developer’s assumption). This may not be the case when a detailed analysis is being done.
2. The majority of Bidadari town is still in phase 1 development, potential homeowners still need time to absorb the price point.
3. 5-room units are mainly designed for homeowners who have made their investment return from their first BTO exercise or household who have enough to finance a larger unit. 5-room tend to get the best location with better attributes during the design stage in tandem with its price point.
4. The price increment is in tandem with sustained overwhelmed demand and low dropout rate as well as partial completion of phase 1 projects at Bidadari town.
5. A 4-room at Woodleigh Hillside have increased from S$100,000-S$105,200 compared to launch price 3 years ago. The site has plenty of west sun facing 4-room units (which most probably explain the cautiously low entry price), but sustained demand has pushed the price upward.

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