nov 2017 bto - tampines greencourt

DISCLAIMER:​​

1. Readers are advised to use information available here as study guide and use it at your own risk. 
2. Please note that changes/ update based on available information will be made from time to time, readers are advised to check on this page regularly.
3. Analysis was done based on available data at the time of publishing of this review.
4. As each and every unit has it's own attributes, analysis shown here only represent the majority units in the stacks having the same attribute including sun, wind, view, distance etc. 

TAMPINES GREENCOURT

To date, our analysis page for Tampines GreenCourt has appeared on 1st page Google search almost 8,000 times based on Google SEO report. That’s almost 4 times the numbers of units available for selection. For November 2017 BTO, there are new factors to consider, thus we have taken some time to do in depth research before we analyze the developments and share the implication of the new technology like PPVC and PWCS. Tampines GreenCourt will be one of the pioneering batch to use PPVC (Prefabricated Prefinished Volumetric Construction) while many at Punggol Northshore, Bidadari, Tampines North, Yishun have been using PWCS (Pneumatic Waste Conveyance System).  

Park view but west sun, how to get the best of this situation?

Based on our earlier analysis of estimated 48% will have west sun exposure, we have further refined that figure to 47% after we did an in-depth analysis on the whole development using our inch accurate 3D model. Many would have been wondering which unit to go for? If you want a park view, you may get lots of west sun exposure. We have answers to that since the level of exposure will be different for each stack based on location, building height and the surrounding block's height and this answer is only available from the simulation we did on our inch accurate 3D model. The prevailing wind pattern may or may not help to minimize the west sun impact, but which stack will benefit from it? Tall and big trees will eventually populate the park, maybe you can pray that the big and lush trees will help to minimize the west sun impact? Note that recently fallen big trees have almost become a norm during thunderstorm. 

Should you avoid facing Playground? What are the noise disturbance potentials?

Many associate children’s playground with noisy environment, is that true? On the weekdays, children’s usually visits the playground with adult supervision around 4pm-6pm. On weekends, residents may use the facilities from 8am-10am and 4pm-6pm as 10am onwards, most of the children’s playground, adult and elderly fitness station will be exposed to direct noon hot sun and this can be simulated using our 3D model. When we look at this timeline of amenities usage, usually the residents will be either out at work; worst case sleeping through on the weekend, you will only be affected for 2-3 hours. In short, is this situation unbearable? 

For noise disturbance potentials, we should instead look into the vehicle moving around and in the development. Based on the area allocated for car parks and HDB norm for car park requirement, we estimated the numbers of car parking will be at least 1,400-1,500. With this amount of car parking, 7 entry and exit point have been allocated in this development. 2 levels of car parking will be allocated to the Southern part of this development, while only 1 level at the Northern part of this development. To allow natural ventilation in this car park area, larger void spaces have been designed to accommodate this requirement, thus contribute to potential noise disturbance from moving vehicles in the parking area below. Apart from the void area, the estimated 1,400-1,500 vehicles will disperse via 2 ingress/ egress points connecting Tampines North Drive and 1 ingress/ egress point connecting Tampines Street 62. Note that these 2 roads also serve other Tampines North developments, thus the amount of vehicle movement will contribute to future noise disturbance along the primary access road and service road.

What is PPVC and what is the implication in terms of pricing, construction and future renovation?

infographic by straits times

The attached infographic above will give you a better understanding of what is PPVC is about.

Since each module will not be larger 3.4m (width) x 4.5m (height) due to LTA transportation guideline and existing trailer size constrains, each residential unit will be sliced into few pieces (modules) and piece it together on site. The implication would be the joining part between these different pieces (modules) where water tightness and allowance for joining tolerance will be critical, meaning leakage or crack may happen if not planned and executed well. 

Most of future homeowners by now would have noticed that there won’t be an optional scheme for 3-room, 4-room and 5-room as compared to previous BTO. The reason being, most of the work will be executed at the factory itself due to economy of scale and maximizing output. For future renovation, homeowners will need a very skillful renovation contractor to do any future renovation work (as per BCA advice) due to PPVC construction methodology. Meaning the renovation contractor need to understand how the unit modules being assembled and where are the connecting points before carrying out the work. With PPVC, renovation work for the 1st home owner will be limited to false ceiling (if needed), carpentry work and lightings which will be more controlled and present less an issue. 

When it comes to pricing, it was announced that the price for PPVC construction will be more expensive as compared to current conventional way of construction due to cheaper labor cost that Singapore still enjoy. To find out how much this cost estimated will be, we have done an analysis for 4-room and 5-room to compare against Tampines GreenVerge (Aug 2016) and GreenWeave (May 2015). After deducting the optional scheme cost for Tampines GreenCourt (based on previous BTO OCS price) to even the comparison with the 2 previous BTO, we still detect a price premium of S$20,000 to S$30,000 for 4-room at Tampines GreenCourt. This price premium may include price increment due to locality maturity, meaning the later development will have an upward price adjustment. For 5-room, the price disparity is a lot greater (note: we only share price analysis in our ‘Premium’ package).

What is PWCS? How does it work and what is the current issue in the market?

infographic by straits times

The infographic above is an example of a PWCS (Pneumatic Waste Conveyance System) which may be used in Tampines GreenCourt. Based on the site plan, the PWCS bin center is measured at almost 18.5m x 17.5m which is about the size of 3 numbers of 5-room unit. 

PWCS was launched under the HDB Greenprint programme in Yuhua back in Nov 2015. PWCS system was installed in all 38 blocks in Yuhua consisting of 3,800 households and connected to a Centralized Bin Centre. The Centralized Bin Centre at Yuhua measured at estimated 20m x 17.5m (based on one map satellite image) which is almost similar to the size at Tampines GreenCourt. Over at Tampines GreenCourt, there are a total of 19 blocks and 2,192 units. 

The usage of PWCS at Yuhua also comes with a guideline from HDB which includes:
1. Use only waste bag that fits into the waste hopper (approx. 250 to 300mm when filled up)
2. No large or heavy item
3. No foam packaging or plastic wraps. These items will expand inside the refuse chute to cause blockage
4. No large carton boxes. Do not fold and squeeze carton boxes into the refuse chute. They will expand to cause blockage
5. No long items
There will be alternate site to dispose item which can’t be disposed from the list above.

The current issue with PWCS in the market has been the dispute on defects between residents at The Sail @ Marina Bay claimed against the developer CDL whereby the residents have to bear with stench for almost 8 years due to rubbish bags stuck in the chutes, causing foul smell and attracting pests. According to the PWCS supplier, Envac (Swedish waste management company), the system being used in this development is the ‘Stationary Vacuum System’. Currently this dispute has been part of the lawsuit filed by residents against the developer. To be fair, other private developments (more than 100 based on parliament Q&A dated 8 Mar 2017 by MEWR) had not had issue with PWCS thus far. 

Not that we didn't trust your free review but being kiasu we decided that we should get the paid review as well since we are deciding to buy something that costs few hundred thousand. Thankfully we did, ..." 
Mrs. Lim | Tampines GreenWeave

When I got the number I was very upset... felt v ironic... xxx out of 800+? Lucky number but so far ... So I thought I needed help to choose a better unit that I don't think I'm capable to find... So I'm really relieve you came along... help to decide and aid decision making... and I can confidently tell HDB which unit I want and know it's available... Sooo really glad and thankful!"
Ms Ann Y | accountant, offshore taxation | Tampines GreenVerge

Just to share, my father quite impressed with your (hausanalyst.com) professionalism... He said keep up the good work, and wishes you (hausanalyst.com) success... "
Mr Lim | stat board MTI | Tampines GreenVerge

In our paid analysis, we will discuss at least 7 attributes to look into for this development to check and ascertain which unit will have better attributes or should you have preferred unit in mind, what is the pro and cons which you need to consider and understand. We will analyze every stack and provide a written analysis for our ‘Standard’ package (up to 50% of the same room type) and ‘Premium’ (all the stacks for the same room type) package, then summarized these findings in an easy to digest score chart to allow easy reference when choosing a unit.

we will cover the following in written analysis and score (not limited to the following):
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1. lift ratio - what is the best lift ratio to avoid the common break down, which has been in the limelight recently in BTO developments?

2. distance between building (facade to facade) - what is the recommended distance to allow for privacy, etc? You can even get to 'feel' the distance in our 3D model through different simulation.

3. distance to lift lobby - living in a non landed property includes horizontal and lift or staircase assisted vertical travelling distance, meaning when you calculate distance to any amenity, you still need to include the distance from your unit to the lift lobby. 

4. wind exposure - while wind exposure may change due to surrounding developments and local weather pattern, the prevailing wind will maintain throughout unless the world weather pattern gone through extreme changes.

5. west sun exposure - our model is capable to analyse sun exposure 24-7 and 365 days in a year. Our analysis is based on standard norm which has been practiced in the industry.

6. viewing angle - a normal human will have a 120 degree horizontal viewing angle. We have a different assessment base on different viewing coverage. Through our model, you will get an almost real time view year before you were handed your keys to your unit. You can even explore vertical view and explore the development surrounding through our 3D model.
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7. noise disturbance - knowing the noise source will be the most important factor in knowing if your unit will be exposed to extensive noise disturbance. The source of disturbance may tie up to different attributes which we will explain in detail based on development.

Prelude

We have been receiving frequent request to analyse new BTO launches to allow potential home buyers to decide whether they would like to register for a project rather than being ‘forced’ to choose a unit from a project which they found out that they don’t really like it. For the past few months, we have been working on a systematic way to analyse a development from the macro aspect like west sun exposure, wind exposure, density/ plot ratio, total numbers of units, surrounding development (current and future), MRT/LRT proximity and other information which you will never get from any other online source.

To create a systematic way to analyse a development and based on the collected attributes described above, we organise the rating for each attribute into a scale of 1 to 4 (1 being not so desirable to 4 which is most desirable). These attributes scoring description only available to paid subscribers who would like to understand the in-depth analysis and how we can help homeowners to assess their risk before they invest their hard-earned money into the largest investment in their life. Our scoring system is based on collective data collected from all BTO launches and part SERS since year 2010 which accumulated to almost 234 developments comprising 165,000 in total.

Site Analysis

Tampines Green Court is part of the Tampines North development which was announced a few years back and currently into its 5th launches. Based on our earlier assessment, there will be estimated 48% of stacks having 3pm west sun exposure (note that this assessment is based on units having a standard horizontal shading device of at least 300mm to 600mm). Higher percentage of west sun exposed units will translate to higher risk of getting one should your queue number reaches half way point. We rate the west sun exposure at 2 out of 4.

Based on recorded wind pattern data from the year 2016, we anticipate at least up to 44% of the stacks here will get either 1 of the prevailing wind exposure either from North East, North to North West, South or South to South West. Prevailing wind exposure will allow the unit a good cross ventilation and allow healthier internal living space. Prevailing wind exposure is best facing the main façade where all the windows of Living and Bedrooms are facing. We rate the wind exposure for this development 2 out of 4.   
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In terms of transportation proximity, having a distance of 400m or less from a MRT station will be the best possible scenario as this coverage is what we considered as the gold mine. Proximity to LRT station will not equal to proximity to a MRT station as LRT only serve a small locality and eventually will need to connect to MRT for greater access to the whole Singapore. Based on estimated diagonal measurement to the nearest MRT, the distance will be at least 900m away towards the new Tampines (DT32) station.  We rate the transportation proximity 2 out of 4.

The highest plot ratio for a residential plot in Singapore is currently Pinnacle @ Duxton which is at 8.4. Plot ratio means the amount of allowable gross floor area which can be built over a plot of land. A plot ratio of 8.4 will translate to a development with a maximum gross floor area of 8.4 times the size of the land it sited on. Additional planning parameters like air space control, building setback, etc, will determine if a development is compact or sparse (with more green spaces), high or low.  Tampines Green Court is currently at plot ratio 2.8 which is the minimum range for mid to high rise development in Singapore. We rate this development 4 out of 4 for plot ratio.

This development consists of up to a total of 2,192 units. A development size will determine how resources being distributed and utilised. A huge development will translate to a larger parking area, further distance to amenities, more residents sharing the same amenities, etc. More residents sharing the same amenities will attribute to higher wear and tear and eventually higher future maintenance and discomfort. We rate this development 1 out of 4 for development size. 
 
Amenities within a 500m walk from a development will allow better accessibility and save on travelling time. These amenities include schools, health care facility, commercial area and better still with a large green area like parks and waterbody to allow nearby residents to relax and exercise. At best, we will try to avoid proximity to industrial area, be it business 1 or 2, airbase, reserved site, etc. A reserved site in URA masterplan being defined as an area the specific use of which have yet to be determined. This will translate to future unforeseen risk to the development. Tampines Green Court is within 500m to education, central park, healthcare and commercial. This development is also 500m away from reserved site which may pose future unforeseen risk. We rate this development at 3 out of 4.

Overall we rate this development 14 out of total 24.

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