bidadari (2015-2020) you saw it, you like it, you want a piece of it!

disclaimer: ​​
1. Readers are advised to use information available here as study guide only and use it at your own risk. 
2. Please note that changes/ update based on updated information will be made from time to time, readers are advised to check on this page regularly.
3. Analysis was done based on available data at the time of this review being published. ​

"Every new town must be better than the previous one," said recently retired former Minister for Transport (previously helm the Ministry of National Development 2011-2015) Mr Khaw Boon Wan back in Aug 2013 when he launched the 3 new residential township which comprised Bidadari, Tampines North as well as Punggol Matilda.

you saw it!

​“The 93-hectare Bidadari estate, with 11,000 housing units, will feature a lake inspired by the former Alkaff Lake Gardens. The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has envisioned the estate as a “tranquil urban oasis” for residents. There will be six neighbourhoods - Alkaff, Bartley Heights, Sennett, Park’s Edge and Woodleigh - with the first housing parcel in Alkaff Neighbourhood to be launched by 2015. The new Alkaff lake will be located in a new Bidadari Park, of around 10 hectares. The park will integrate an existing Memorial Garden commemorating the heritage of Bidadari Cemetery.” - Todayonline, 30, August 2013
 
To-date, 6,418 units (including 312 units of rented flats) of public housing have been launched in Bidadari. Another 1,230 units will be added to the existing stock by November 2020. That leaves another 2,350 units to be grabbed in the future. So, why was there a buzz when it was launched? Apart from being located in the central district, major part of this land mass (in some part still do) used to be land for the dead. You can read all about the history here. The thing about being a former cemetery could be the key to why homeowners are so anxious to get a piece of it. Bishan, another former cemetery land has created wealth for many property investors since (Chinese community believes in letting the dead have the best land for burial, therefore the price premium on it and later translated into property price increase). The notable difference is that the latter is a Chinese cemetery while the former (Bidadari) is a mixture of Christian, Muslim and others.

you like it?

​In terms of selling price versus cost for construction, the same can be observed here whereby as a public housing development, land cost does not contribute to the selling price. Average selling price for the 7 developments launched thus far have seen an average of S$450-S$500 per square foot (psf). The majority of the cost for construction still came from the physical construction work itself, which equivalent to more than 90% of the total cost. The cost of land which we have shown in the chart (reference from the only private land sales activity) is mainly for reference to reflect that land cost is not included in the selling price. 

Of course, few may argue that financial cost should also be included in the cost for construction. Frankly, even if we have factored it, it still comprises a very small percentage of the construction cost. To have a better picture of how much is the borrowing cost, the attached chart recorded the S$32 billion Multicurrency Medium Term Notes (MTN) Programme launched over the years which the developer initiated back in 2015. “Under HDB’s MTN programme, HDB may from time to time, issue bonds (or notes) to finance its development programmes and working capital requirements as well as to refinance the existing borrowings”. ​

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​Most of you must have noticed the anomalies in TPC5 price. TPC5 (Woodleigh Village) consist of at least 9.05% of development floor area for bus interchange, 6.19% for commercial as well as 0.98% for the MRT connection to the existing MRT station and the rest went to the residential floor area. You can contribute the higher selling price to the lower efficiency, which mean more cost have been allocated to build the public amenities (as described above) and common area within the residential blocks instead of the unit itself. For private residential development, the efficiency usually reaches up to 90% with various schemes for bonus GFA. While there’s no specific breakdown of how much the construction cost being distributed among the components, tender have been awarded to the winning bidder for “building works at Bidadari integrated development comprising 330 units of public housing with social community facilities, bus interchange, food centre, multi-storey carpark and heritage walk at Bidadari contract 5.” 

​We further added the cost for the 10ha Bidadari Park and external infrastructure works which currently total up to at least S$82m (Note that the 93ha development is only 2/3 being launched). Someone needs to pay for this cost; therefore, we assume this cost should be shared among the estimated 11,000 residential units. The price tag also came with the first underground service reservoir (to be built beneath the community lawn to optimise land use) which store drinking water to regulate supply to homes and boost water pressure during high demand period. Details for tender thus far can be found in the attached table.     

you want a piece of it?

​Next, we did a quick analysis for 4-room flat type for all the 7 developments in Bidadari. First chart will give you a quick view of how the different 4-room flats being distributed across all the developments with volume comparison via tree map. The subsequent chart will give you an idea of the 4-room price average across the 7 developments as well as the distribution ratio within the same development and psf price vs same development average. These bar charts will raise more questions as you will see some data in the negative range and we will explain in our pricing report, which will be part of our ‘absolute’ analysis package. 

Why you need to know the pricing data?

1. If you buy high with high average, then your chance of price upside will be minimal.
2. If you buy low with high average, then you can minimise your loss if forced to liquidate.
3. If you buy high with bad attributes, then it will be a double whammy as you will find it hard to sell even during forced liquidation.
4. If you buy low with good attributes, then that’s almost like beating the game of chance!
5. You have 1 in 8 chances for each of the above to happen. 
 
In short,
1. You need to know what price to buy at, and
2. Price data for the neighbourhood so you know when to exit.    

​Please 'like' and 'share' this article if it helps you to better understand the public housing in Singapore. Next, we will analyse Tampines North (public housing within mature region).

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